8 :: Megatrends

🚪TL;DR:

The end of the year is always a good time for a bit of futurism. When permacrisis was Word of the Year the year before, though, it might be useful to use it as a reminder that multiple transformative forces are shaping (some could argue, fundamentally changing) the world as we know it. And there is more to it than AI - shocking, I know. Demographics, economy or public health, just to name a few, are also shifting towards new paradigms, and a leisurely approach to their challenges and opportunities is not cutting it anymore. It is more necessary then ever to put the power of innovation at the service of our future if we want to thrive as a society.

🧠 What is it?
Megatrends are essentially large-scale, long-term, deep-rooted societal shifts that have a profound impact on how we live and interact with the world. They evolve and start manifesting over an extended period of time (sometimes spanning decades), driven by a variety of factors, including technological advancements, demographic changes, and economic or political trends. Urbanization, aging population, hyperconnectivity, disruptive work and education models, climate change, or environmental degradation are just a few examples. There are others and the wording might vary across lists but all of them represent some of the biggest challenges and opportunities for humanity.

📦 Why is it relevant?
This might be too much of a personal and maybe slightly biased view, but I’m yet to find a better answer than innovation to make the best out of a changing world. To address those challenges and opportunities. In fact, that was exactly why I pivoted my career after studying politics, and the impression that its potential to create better societies is unparalleled just grows stronger every day. In a way, all CINOs (and, as per usual, all innovators actually) must be futurists of some kind, and these megatrends provide a framework for understanding the future. Like the building blocks of what to expect and, therefore, of how to act. In another way, taking the change drivers seat, they also have the responsibility to drive change where it is the most needed and helpful not only to their organizations but also to us all as a society. As such, Megatrends (especially industry-specific megatrends) offer not only guidance but also purpose for innovation efforts.

🧶 Where to learn more about it:
I found out about the Competence Centre on Foresight and its work on megatrends for Europe when I was at the European Commission and that was the first source I used to learn about the concept. Then I also discovered PwC’s extensive work on it. A few years ago they identified 5 megatrends for 2030 and more recently created an interesting framework (ADAPT) to help organizations act upon their challenges. Other companies and institutions have also tried to understand these dynamics in-depth through research, developing variations of these lists, like this 2050 Trend Compendium from Roland Berger or this report from the Pictet Group with the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS), which I’d recommend to explore as well.

See you next Tuesday! 👋